ارائه یک مدل مبتنی بر تئوری بازی ها برای تخصیص بهینه آب به ذینفعان در منابع آبی مشترک در شرایط ورشکستگی آبی: کاربرد بازی جوجه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیأت علمی دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم و هنر، یزد،‌ ایران؛ دانش آموخته دکتری، بخش مهندسی راه، ساختمان و محیط زیست، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز،‌ ایران.

2 استاد، بخش مهندسی راه، ساختمان و محیط زیست، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

3 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی عمران و معماری، دانشگاه سلطان قابوس، مسقط، عمان.

چکیده

مقدمه: افزایش تقاضای مصرف، رقابت بین ذینفعان مختلف، کاهش منابع آبی و قرارگرفتن در شرایط ورشکستگی آبی، مدیریت منابع آب را در سال های اخیر با چالش های زیادی مواجه کرده است.
روش­: مطالعه حاضر چالش موجود بین ذینفعان بهره برداری از منابع مشترک آب، در شرایطی که دچار ورشکستگی آبی شده اند را بررسی می‌کند. برای حل این مشکل از کاربرد بازی جوجه استفاده شده است. بازی جوجه یک روش کاربردی از تئوری بازی ها در جهت رفع تضاد های بین دو بازیکن می‌باشد. هدف اصلی در این تحقیق رسیدن به الگوی مناسب رفتاری دو بازیکن با در نظر داشتن دوراندیشی مناسب می‌باشد. لذا در ابتدا از مدل MODFLOW برای شبیه‌سازی منبع آب زیرزمینی مشترک در منطقه مورد مطالعه استفاده شده است. سپس این مدل با استفاده از شبکه عصبی به یک مدل بهینه‌سازی دو هدفه با لحاظ کمینه کردن افت تراز آب زیرزمینی و افزایش سود متصل گردیده است. دوره مدیریتی این تحقیق چهار ساله بوده و کارآیی آن در یکی از زیرحوزه های استان گلستان واقع در شمال ایران مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته است.
یافته­ها و نتیجه‌گیری: در این تحقیق سطوح کشت بهینه مختلف در حالت های متفاوت از بازی به دست آمده و بر مبنای نتایج حاصل از میزان برداشت آب زیرزمینی، میزان افت دقیق سفره و سود تعیین گردیده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که ذینفعان مختلف در بهره برداری از منبع مشترک آبی با استفاده از دوراندیشی می‌توانند از ضررهای راهبردی خود در آینده جلوگیری کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Developing a model based on games theory for optimal allocation of water to stakeholders in shared water resources under water bankruptcy conditions: Application of chicken game

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mehdi Yazdian 1
  • Gholamreza Rakhshandehroo 2
  • Mohammad Reza Nikoo 3
  • Nasser Talebbeydokhti 2
1 Faculty Member of Civil Engineering Department, Science & Arts University, Yazd, Iran; Graduated of Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Ira
3 Associate Professor, Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman.
چکیده [English]

The increase in consumption demand, competition between different stakeholders, decrease of water resources and being placed under water bankruptcy condition have caused many challenges for water resources management in recent years. The current study assesses the existing challenges between stakeholders who intend to extract from shared water resources. Chicken game has been applied to solve the problem, which is a practical method of games theory in order to eliminate the oppositions between two players. The main goal is to achieve a suitable behavioral pattern for two players by considering appropriate foresight. In this research, MODFLOW model has been used to simulate shared groundwater resource in the studied region. Then, the model is connected to a two-objective optimization model by minimize the drop in the aquifer’s water table and profit increase by using a neural network. The management period of this research was four years and its practicality has been evaluated one of the sub-basins of Golestan province located in northern Iran. In the study, different optimized cultivation areas in various modes of the game have been developed and then, based on the obtained results from the extracted groundwater, the exact amount of groundwater drawdown and obtained profit have been determined. The results show that different stakeholders in exploiting the common water source by using foresight can prevent their strategic losses in the future.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Shared water resource
  • Optimal harvest
  • Game Theory
  • Chicken game
  • MODFLOW
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