Evaluation of climate change impact on climate parameters in Tuyserkan Catchment using general circulation models

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• mohammadtaghi dastourani ¹
• alirez M ²
• M.H R ³
• H. J ⁴

¹ دانشیار دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

² دانشیار دانشگاه تهران پردیس ابوریحان

³ استادیار مرکز ملی تحقیقات شوری، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، یزد، ایران

⁴ استادیار هیدروژئولوژی، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود

Abstract

Climate change impacted of the amount, timing and type of precipitation, also was impacted on water quality, increased droughts, increased demand for water, changes in the management of water resources, as well as sea level rise and its complications. Climate change also had great influence on the temperature changes so that maximum and minimum values and extreme temperature. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature use with 15 of atmospheric general circulation model under two scenarios A1B and B1 in the period 2039-2011. For this purpose, the use of beta statistical distribution of rainfall changes, minimum and maximum temperatures were calculated from 15 general circulation model, the probability of 20, 50 and 80 percent, respectively. The results showed that the probability of 20 to 80 percent under both scenarios A1B and B1 minimum and maximum temperatures are rising and the rain is falling. The minimum and maximum temperatures under A1B increased more than B1 scenario and precipitation reduced under B1 more than A1B scenario. The results showed that 19 to 22% decrease in precipitation and minimum temperature of 13 to 20% and a maximum temperature of 2.4 to 6.4 percent increase compared to baseline the Tuyserkan catchment.

Keywords

• Climate Change
• Beta probability distribution
• LARS-WG
• Tuyserkan catchment

20.1001.1.20086377.1398.12.42.12.2

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