Post Audit Analysis of a Groundwater Level Prediction with actual field data (Case Study: Haji Abad Aquifer)

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

• Fardin Boustani

Young researches and Elite Club, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran

Abstract

Post Audit is a subsequent review of numerical model’s prediction. In this method, the model’s predictions are compared with actual field data, at least a few years after prediction. This investigation will prepare valuable information in order to use numerical model for predicting input stress to aquifer and can be used for improving model ability in prediction. In this study we assessment the model prediction of Haji Abad Aquifer. Haji Abad Aquifer is sub Basin of Kol River and located in the south part of Haji Abad study area and 160 distances from BandarAbas City. Numerical model of this aquifer run in unsteady situation for 2007-2008 water year. This model was used for predicting water level in a 5-year period (2010-2015). Due to the existence of real data from ground water level in 2015- 2011, the result of model prediction compared with real ground water data. The result show, on average 1.35 meters error occurred in prediction. The most important factor in this error is predicting model for wet situation while in the reality the study area faced with drought condition. Other effective factors in this error are bad design of conceptual model and ignoring conceptual model uncertainty in numerical model simulation.

Keywords

• Post Audit
• Ground Water
• Numerical Model
• Conceptual Model Uncertainty

20.1001.1.20086377.1398.12.40.10.6

---

References

)1 . جودوی،ع. مدلهای ریاضی آب زیرزمینی، 1831
چالشها و فرصتها.
)5 . شرکت سهامی آبمنطقهایی هرمزگان، 1833
گزارش بیلان هیدروژئولوژی دشت حاجیآباد، 51 صفحه.
)8 مهندسین مشاور پنگانآوران، 1836 . جلددوم -
مطالعات نیمهتفصیلی آبهای زیرزمینی دشت حاجیآباد،
585 صفحه.
)1 مهندسین مشاور پنگانآوران، 1836 . جلدسوم -
مطالعات نیمه تفصیلی آبهای زیرزمینی دشت حاجیآباد،
51 صفحه.
5) Ala-aho, P., Rossi, P. M., Isokangas, E., & Klove, B. 2015. Fully integrated surface–subsurface flow modelling of groundwater–lake interaction in an esker aquifer: Model verification with stable isotopes and airborne thermal imaging. Journal of Hydrology, 522: 391-406.
6) Andersen, P. F., & Lu, S. 2003. A post audit of a model‐designed ground water extraction system. Ground Water, 41: 212-218.
7) Brkić, Ž., Urumović, K., & Briški, M. 2013. Post audit analysis of a groundwater level prediction model in developed semiconfined aquifer system. Water resources management, 27: 3349-3363.
8) Ghassemi, F. 1979. Mathematical model application in ground-water studies of Iran. GroundWater, 17: 359- 365.
9) Goode, D. J., & Konikow, L. F. 1990. Réévaluation of large-scale dispersivities for a waste chloride plume: Effects of transient flow. Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling, 417-426.
10) Izady, A., Davary, K., Alizadeh, A., Ziaei, A. N., Alipoor, A., Joodavi, A., & Brusseau, M. L. 2014. A framework toward developing a groundwater conceptual model. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 7: 3611-3631.
11) Izady, A., Davary, K., Alizadeh, A., Ziaei, A. N., Akhavan, S., Alipoor, A., ... & Brusseau, M. L. 2015. Groundwater conceptualization and modeling using distributed SWAT-based recharge for the semi-arid agricultural Neishaboor plain, Iran. Hydrogeology Journal 23: 47-68.
12) Jones, D., Jones, N., Greer, J., & Nelson, J. 2015. A cloud-based MODFLOW service for aquifer management decision support. Computers & Geosciences 78: 81-87.
13) Karlsen, R. H., Smits, F. J. C., Stuyfzand, P. J., Olsthoorn, T. N., & Van Breukelen, B. M. 2012. A post audit and inverse modeling in reactive transport: 50years of artificial recharge in the Amsterdam Water Supply Dunes. Journal of Hydrology 454: 7-25.
14) Konikow LF. 1986. Predictive accuracy of a ground-water model—lessons from a postaudit. Ground Water 24:173–184
15) Konikow, L. F., & Person, M. 1986. Assessment of long‐term salinity changes in an irrigated stream‐aquifer system. Water Resources Research 21: 1611-1624.
16) Konikow, L. F., & Swain, L. A. 1990. Assessment of predictive accuracy of a model of artificial recharge effects in the upper Coachella Valley, California. In Selected Papers on Hydrogeology from the 28th International Geological Congress (Vol. 1, pp. 433-449).
17) Regli, C., Rauber, M., & Huggenberger, P. 2003. Analysis of aquifer heterogeneity within a well capture zone, comparison of model data with field experiments: A case study from the river Wiese, Switzerland. Aquatic Sciences 65: 111-128.
18) Stewart, M., & Langevina, C. 1999. Post audit of a numerical prediction of
121 مقایسهی نتایج حاصل از پیش بینی شبیه سازی عددی و واقعیت سطح آب زیرزمینی )مطالعه نمونه ای دشت حاجی آباد(
wellfield drawdown in a semiconfined aquifer system. GroundWater 37: 245-252.
19) Yang, Q. C., Liang, J., & Yang, Z. P. 2012. Numerical modeling of groundwater flow in Daxing (Beijing), China. Energy Procedia 14: 1671-1676.