Developing a Dynamic Simulation Model for Phosphorus Cycling in Lakes ‎(Case Study: Lake Ontario)‎

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Abstract

Food cycle creates a mechanism through which nutrients and other components of life are available for the living organisms. Improper function of the cycle may lead to disruption in the life cycle of organisms. In this paper, the dynamic flow of phosphorus, which is essential for plant growth, was studied considering three state variables: productive organisms (organic phosphorus), dead organisms (organic phosphorus) and inorganic phosphorus. According to the three state variable’s feedbacks, phosphorus and phytoplankton simulation model was developed using the system dynamics approach and considering governing equations, feedback loops, and input and output streams. The behavior of each state variable was evaluated during a year for Lake Ontario. The result revealed that the model benefits from the desired performance in simulating and estimating the variable concentrations. It can be clearly seen that stratification and completely mixing of the lake during two periods (day 100 to 158, and day 315 to 335) have paramount impact on the variable concentrations.

Keywords


5. Chapra, S.D. 1997. Surface water quality
modeling. 1st
 Edition. Mc Graw-Hill,
Inc.
6. Christie, W.J. 1974 Changes in the fish
species composition of the Great Lakes.
J. Fish. Res. Board Can 31: 827–54.
7. Deaton, M.L., and J.J. Winebrake. 2000.
Dynamic modeling of environmental
systems. Springer Verlag.
8. Flynn, K.J. 2010. Ecological modelling
in a sea of variable stoichiometry;
Dysfunctionality and the legacy of
Redfield and Monod. Prog.
Oceanography 84: 52–65.
9. Flynn, K.J., D.R. Clark, and Y. Xue.
2008. Modelling the release of dissolved
organic matter by phytoplankton. J.
Phycol. 44: 1171–1187.
10. Föllmi, K. 1996. The phosphorus cycle,
phosphogenesis and marine phosphaterich deposits. Earth-Science Reviews. 40:
55-124.
11. Forrester, J.W., and P.M. Senge. 1980.
Tests for building confidence in system
dynamics models. In System Dynamics.
Amsterdam, North-Holland.
12. Geene, B. 1996. Eutrophication of
Droodzen reservoir in Iran. Dissertation
for the degree of doctor of science
(technology). Wageningen.
13. Loucks, D.P., J.R. Stedinger, and D.A.
Haith. 1981. Water resources systems
planning and analysis. 1
st Ed. Prentice
Hall. Englewood Cliffs. New York.
14. Nash, J.E. and J.V. Sutcliffe. 1970. River
flow forecasting through conceptual
models. Part I. J. Hydrol. 10: 282–290.
15. Özkundakci, D., D.P. Hamilton, and D.
Trolle. 2011. Modelling the response of a
highly eutrophic lake to reductions in
external and internal nutrient loading. N.
Z. J. Mar. Freshw. Res. 45: 165-185.
16. Ruley, J.E., and K.A. Rusch. 2004.
Development of a simplified phosphorus
management model for a shallow,
subtropical, urban hypereutrophic lake.
Ecol. Eng. 22:77–98.
17. Sanchez-Carrillo, S., L.C. Alatorre, R.
Sánchez-Andrés, and J. Garatuza-Payán.
2007. Eutrophication and sedimentation
patterns in complete exploitation of water
resources scenarios: an example from
northwestern semi-arid Mexico. Environ.
Monit. Assess. 132: 377-393.
18. Shirmohammadi, A., I. Chaubey, R.D.
Harmel, D.D. Bosch, R. Muñoz-Carpena,
A. Sexton, M. Arabi, M.L. Wolfe, and J.
Frankenberger. 2006. Uncertainty in
TMDL models, Trans. ASAE 49: 1033-
1049.
19. Simonovic, S.P., and H. Fahmy. 1999. A
new modeling approach for water
resources policy analysis. J.Water
Resour. Res. 35: 295-304.
20. Simonovic, S.P., S. and Ahmad. 2000.
System dynamics modeling of reservoir
operation for flood management. J.
comput. Civil Eng. 14: 190-198.
21. Sterman, J.D. 2000. Business dynamics.
McGraw-Hill. Boston.
22. Vezjak, M., T. Savsek, and E.A. Stuhler.
1998. System dynamics of eutrophication
process in lakes. Euro. J. Operat. Res.
109:442-451.
23. Zincke, D. 2004. Effects of nitrogen and
phosphorus enrichment on phytoplankton
communities of lakes Atawapaskat,
Michigan. J.Atwapaskat Res. 001-006.