بررسی اثر تغییراقلیم بر تبخیر- تعرق و نیاز آبی گندم در منطقه‌ی بجنورد

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• سمیرا یارمحمدی ¹
• مهدی ذاکری نیا ²
• خلیل قربانی ²
• افشین سلطانی ³

¹ کارشناس ارشد آبیاری و زهکشی

² دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

³ استاد گروه زراعت، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

چکیده

به منظور شناخت بیشتر نسبت به تاثیرات پدیده­ی تغییراقلیم جهانی، در تحقیق پیش رو اثر تغییرات اقلیمی بر تبخیر- تعرق  و نیاز آبی گندم­های دیم و آبی در منطقه­ی بجنورد مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. بدین منظور، فراسنجهای هواشناسی حداقل و حداکثر دما، بارش و تابش روزانه طی سالهای 1983 تا 2012 از اداره­ی هواشناسی اخذ، و به عنوان داده های مشاهده ای به نرم افزار LARS-WG وارد شدند. فراسنجهای دما و بارش منطقه­ی بجنورد با استفاده از شبیه ساز گردش عمومی HadCM3 و تحت نمایشنامه­های انتشار A1B، A2 و B1 برای سه دوره­ی زمانی 2040-2011، 2070-2041 و 2100-2071 تولید شده، و با استفاده از نرم افزار LARS-WG5 ریزمقیاس شدند. از شبیه ساز  SSM-WHEAT، که دارای قابلیت تغییر در تاریخ کشت می­باشد، برای شبیه سازی رشد گندم استفاده شد. نتایج تغییر اقلیم حاکی از آن بودند که به طور کلی، دمای منطقه تا سال 2100 در تمام ماههای سال روند افزایشی خواهدداشت. همچنین اندازه­ی بارندگی در دسامبر، ژانویه، فوریه و مارس افزایش، اما در آوریل، می، آگوست و سپتامبر کاهش می یابد. نتایج شبیه سازی با SSM-WHEAT نیز نشان دادند که به خاطر کاهش در طول فصل رشد گندم، اندازه­ی تبخیر- تعرق گندم به­طور کلی تا سال  2100کاهش می­یابد، اما تبخیر-تعرق طی فصل رشد در تاریخ کشتهای دیرتر در دیم­کاری کاهش و در کشت آبی افزایش می­یابد. با کاهش اندازه­ی تبخیر-تعرق، نیاز خالص آبیاری نیز تا پایان قرن حاضر کاهش می یابد، اما در هر دوره­ی زمانی با جابه جایی تاریخ کشت به سمت اواخر پاییز، بر مقدار آن افزوده می­شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• تغییراقلیم
• شبیه ساز گردش عمومی
• گندم
• تبخیر- تعرق
• نیاز آبی

20.1001.1.20086377.1396.10.35.8.0

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عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation of the effect of climate change on evapotranspiration and wheat water requirement in Bojnord region

نویسندگان [English]

• Samira yarmohammadi ¹
• Mehdi Zakerinia ²
• Khalil Ghorbani ²
• Afshin Soltani ³

چکیده [English]

There is a general consensus among climate scientists about the rise in global temperature due to an increase in the anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere. This will undoubtedly change the pattern of evapotranspiration (ET) due to an increase in CO2 concentration of the air with the resultant deerease in the stomata opening. Predication of the wheat plant ET was achieved by entering the minimum and maximum air temperature, precipitation and daily radiation for the 1983-2012 period into the downscaled LARS-WG software and its incorporation into the HadCM3 general circulation model under the A1B, A2 and B1 climate change scenarios for the 2011-2040 , 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 periods. Results of the general circulation model for Bojnourd area indicates that the temperature will increase in all months of the year up to 2100 year. There will also be an increase in precipitation, in December, January, February and March, and its decreases in April, May, August and September. The generated temperature and precipitation date were fed into the SSM-WHEAT as an application for making changing planting date for simulation of wheat growth.  Results indicated that the change in the mean maximum and minimum temperature and also that of precipitation reduced rate-fed wheat's ET up to the year 2100. On the contrary, the ET of the late-planted irrigation wheat will be increased and it would be decreased in rainfed farming. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Climate Change
• General Atmospheric Circulation Model
• evapotranspiration
• Wheat water requirement

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