طراحی سناریوی تغییر الگوی کشت جهت پایداری منابع آب در استان آذربایجان‏غربی با استفاده از سیستم‏های پویا

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای توسعه کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد، ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، واحد علوم‌ و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

چکیده
مقدمه: سوء­مدیریت و برداشت بی­رویه از منابع آب بویژه در بخش کشاورزی و اختصاص بیش از 90٪ آب مصرفی در این بخش، بحران آب را تشدید کرده و ادامه این روند، در آینده فاجعه­ آور خواهد بود. تحقیق حاضر به بررسی تأثیر تغییر الگوهای کشت بر پایداری منابع آب و تولیدکشاورزی در استان آذربایجان­ غربی پرداخته است.
روش­: این تحقیق با استفاده از رویکرد سیستم­های پویا دو زیرسیستم تأثیرگذار هیدرولوژی و اقتصادی رامدل­سازی کرده است و با استفاده از داده­ های آماری سالهای1370 تا 1398 متغیرهای اصلی تحقیق تا افق 1430 شبیه­سازی شدند. پس از کالیبراسیون مدل بوسیله الگوریتم ژنتیک ساده و آزمون مدل در شرایط حدی، سناریوهای الگوی کشت کنونی، الگوی کشت کم ­مصرف و الگوی کشت اقتصادی به مدل وارد شد و تأثیر سناریوها با استفاده از دو شاخص ارزشیابی، پایداری منابع آب زیرزمینی (SUI) و بهره ­برداری آب (WEI+)، ارزیابی گردید.
یافته ­ها: نتایج نشان داد ادامه الگوی کشت کنونی سبب کاهش 34/93 درصدی حجم آب‌های زیرزمینی و 20 درصدی موجودی آب‌های سطحی تا افق 1430 خواهد شد. درحالیکه الگوی کشت کم­مصرف  با کاهش 88/52 درصدی تقاضای آب کشاورزی با حذف محصولاتی با نیاز آبی بالا مثل (چغندر) و اختصاص سطح کشت به محصولاتی با نیاز آبی کمتر (جو و کلزا) و افزایش 10٪ آیش اراضی، علاوه بر بهبود 72/53 درصدی بهره­وری آب، پتانسیل آب‌های زیرزمینی را تا 69/13 برابر و آب‌های سطحی موجود را تا 45/2 برابر افزایش خواهد ­داد. که در نهایت با تأثیر مثبت بر شاخص پایداری (SUI) و شاخص بهره­برداری آب (WEI+) سبب پایداری آب‌های زیرزمینی شده و کمترین استرس آبی را در افق 1430 ایجاد می­کند.
نتیجه­ گیری: لازم است سیاست­های تغییر الگوی کشت، ضمن تداوم کشت محصولات استراتژیک در جهت کاهش بهره­برداری و پایداری منابع آب بر الگوی کشت محصولات کم­ مصرف آب تمرکز داشته باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Designing Scenario for Changing the Cultivation Pattern for the Sustainability of Water Resources in West Azerbaijan Province using a Dynamic System

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sheida Yousefi 1
  • Seyed Mehdi Mirdamadi 2
  • Sayed Jamal f arajoallah Hosseini 2
  • Farhad Lashgarara 2
1 Ph.D. student in Agricultural Development, Department of Economic, Agricultural Extension and Education, Science and Research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economic, Agricultural Extension and Education, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Abstract
Introduction: Mismanagement and uncontrolled abstraction of water resources, especially in the agricultural sector, with the allocation of more than 90% of water consumption, will exacerbate the water crisis and the continuation of this process will make it catastrophic in the future.The present study investigates the effect of changing cultivation patterns on the sustainability of water resources and agricultural production in West Azerbaijan province.
Methods: This research has modeled two effective water resources subsystems hydrology and economic by using statistical data from 1991 to 2017, and the main variables were simulated up to the horizon of 1430. After calibration by simple genetic algorithm and verification under extreme condition tests, the scenarios of the current cropping pattern, low-consumption cultivation pattern and economic cultivation indicators, groundwater sustainable index (SUI) and water Exploitation index (WEI+), the impact of scenarios was evaluated.
Findings: The results indicated that the continuation of the current cultivation pattern reduces the volume of groundwater by 93/34% and the available surface water by 20% to the horizon of 1430; While the low-consumption cultivation pattern with a reduction of 52.88% in agricultural water demand by eliminating crops with high water requirements (beets) and allocating the cultivation area to crops with low water requirements (barley and canola) and increasing fallow by 10%, in addition on 53.72% improvement of water productivity, it  increases the potential of groundwater 13.69 times and the available surface water 2.45 times, and with a positive effect on the sustainability Index (SUI) and water Exploitation Index (WEI+) Groundwater stability and creates the least water stress in the horizon of 1430. Therefore, in order to sustain water resources, cropping pattern policies should focus on low-use cropping pattern.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Changing crop patterns
  • Dynamic system modeling
  • Production
  • Water resources sustainability

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 21 مهر 1400
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 15 بهمن 1400
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 08 اسفند 1400

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