پیش‌بینی اثرات تغییر الگوی کشت بر سطح ایستابی و هدایت الکتریکی آبخوان آزاد با استفاده از شبکه تصمیم بیزی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• محمد ریکی ¹
• امیر سعدالدین ²
• واحد بردی شیخ ²
• چوقی بایرام کمکی ³

¹ دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد آبخیزداری، دانشکده مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران

² دانشیار گروه آبخیزداری، دانشکده مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران

³ استادیار گروه مدیریت مناطق بیابانی، دانشکده مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران

10.30495/wej.2022.27247.2295

چکیده

مقدمه: کاربردهای شبکه­های بیزی سبب شده است تا به‌عنوان ابزاری قدرتمند برای تصمیم­سازی و تصمیم‌گیری در حل مسائل منابع طبیعی و زیست‌محیطی گسترش پیدا کنند. هدف از تحقیق حاضر پیش­بینی اثرات تغییر الگوی کشت بر سطح ایستابی و هدایت الکتریکی آبخوان آزاد در منطقه علی‌آباد استان گلستان از طریق به‌کارگیری رویکرد تلفیق شبکه­های تصمیم بیزی است.
روش: به‌عنوان اولین گام چارچوب مدل مفهومی و نحوه ارتباط بین متغیرهای آن ترسیم شد و برای منطقه موردمطالعه، سه سناریوی مدیریتی الگوی کشت (الگوی کشت وضع موجود، الگوی کشت با نیاز آبی بالا و الگوی کشت با نیاز آبی کم) تعریف شدند. احتمالات وقوع اولیه، جداول احتمال شرطی و احتمالات کل با استفاده از داده­های مشاهداتی، نتایج مدل CROPWAT و نظرات کارشناسی تعیین شدند. برای اجرای مدل بیزی و آنالیز حساسیت مدل با دو معیار کاهش واریانس و واریانس باور از نرم‌افزار Netica استفاده شد.
یافته­ها: نتایج پیش­بینی اثرات سناریوهای الگوی کشت نشان داد برای الگوی کشت با نیاز آبی کم، میزان احتمال وقوع سطح ایستابی با وضعیت افزایشی حدود پنج درصد نسبت به الگوی کشت وضع موجود افزایش خواهد یافت. همچنین برای الگوی کشت با نیاز آبی کم، میزان احتمال وقوع هدایت الکتریکی با وضعیت بهبود، حدود دو درصد نسبت به میزان احتمال آن در الگوی کشت وضع موجود، افزایش خواهد داشت. آنالیز حساسیت مدل بیزی نشان می‌دهد نیاز آبی نقشی تأثیرگذار در تغییر خصوصیات آبخوان آزاد دارد. نتایج حاکی از آن است که شبکه­های تصمیم بیزی قادرند با پیش‌بینی و ارائه اثرات تغییر الگوی کشت بر خصوصیات کمی و کیفی آبخوان آزاد در یک محیط احتمالاتی به برنامه­ریزان برای مدیریت بهتر منابع آب‌های زیرزمینی کمک کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• مدیریت الگوی کشت
• مدیریت آبخوان آزاد
• شبکه های تصمیم بیزی
• نتیکا
• منطقه علی آباد استان گلستان

20.1001.1.20086377.1400.14.51.8.0

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عنوان مقاله [English]

Predicting the impacts of the changes in crop pattern on water table level and electrical conductivity of an unconfined aquifer using a Bayesian decision network

نویسندگان [English]

• Mohammad Riki ¹
• Amir Sadoddin ²
• Vahedberdi Sheikh ²
• Choghibayram Komaki ³

¹ Graduate M.Sc. of Watershed Management, Faculty of Rangeland and Watershed Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences & Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran

² Associate Professor, Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Rangeland and Watershed Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences & Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran

³ Assistant Professor, Department of Arid Zone Management, Faculty of Rangeland and Watershed Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences & Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran

چکیده [English]

The aim of this research is to predict the effects of cropping pattern changes on the water table level and electrical conductivity of an unconfined aquifer in the Ali-Abad region using a Bayesian Decision Network (BDN) as an integrated approach. A conceptual model framework illustrating the relationship among variables in the system was developed and three management scenarios of crop pattern (current condition, high water demand crops, and low water demand crops) were considered for the study area. Marginal probability, Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs) and total probabilities were characterized using observed data, results of CROPWAT model simulation, and expert knowledge. The Netica software was used to run the Bayesian model and to analyze the sensitivity of the model with two criteria namely reduction of variance and belief variance. The analysis shows that the probability of groundwater depletion occurring for low water requirement crops will be about five per cent less than that in the current condition. The probability of improvement in electrical conductivity for low water requirement crops will be about two per cent greater than that for the current crop pattern. The sensitivity analysis of the Bayesian model shows that the water requirement of crops plays an important role in unconfined aquifer's characteristics. The results demonstrate that the BDNs are capable to help planners for improved management of groundwater resources by predicting and displaying the effects of crop pattern changes on the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of unconfined aquifers in a probabilistic context.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Crop pattern management
• unconfined aquifer management
• Bayesian Decision Networks (BDN)
• Netica software
• the Ali-Abad region (Golestan Province)

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